Salvador's Bahia come into Round 20 with three wins from their last five, including a 2-0 home victory over Chapecoense and a creditable draw at Atletico-MG. Corinthians arrive with decent form too, but three injury absentees thin their options in attack.
The head-to-head numbers are striking: in the last five Serie A meetings, Bahia have won twice and drawn once, conceding in all five but also scoring in three. The model puts Bahia's win probability at 46 per cent against an away win at just 26 per cent. DNB at 1.57 refunds if it ends level, a real cushion.
With the model backing home advantage heavily and h2h supporting Bahia over five games, DNB Home at 1.57 is the play. For the risk-takers, BTTS YES at 1.77-1.80 tempts: both sides have scored in three of the last five meetings.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 29.01.26 | Serie A | 1–2 | O2.5 |
| 17.08.25 | Serie A | 1–2 | O2.5 |
| 31.03.25 | Serie A | 1–1 | U2.5 |
| 04.12.24 | Serie A | 3–0 | O2.5 |
| 21.07.24 | Serie A | 0–1 | U2.5 |
Predictions are editorial opinions based on the data available at publication - never a guarantee. Odds move and availability varies by region. 18+, please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org · Joueurs Info Service