Benfica host St. Gallen in the second leg of this Europa League qualifier, trailing 1-2 from the first leg played in Switzerland. The Portuguese side has scored in all 5 of their last matches and won 3 of those 5, but they must overturn the deficit at home. St. Gallen arrive with 3 injuries in the squad and have conceded in 4 of their last 5 games.
The key numbers: Benfica hit 12 goals in their last 5 matches (2.4 per game average), while St. Gallen conceded 11 in theirs. Both teams scored in 4 of Benfica's last 5 and in 3 of St. Gallen's last 5. Over 2.5 goals landed in 4 of 5 for both sides. The model points firmly to a Benfica home win, priced at 1.11-1.13.
Verdict: Benfica HOME at 1.13. The class gap, home advantage and the need to chase the tie all push in one direction. St. Gallen's three absentees weaken their defensive options further.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 23.07.26 | UEFA Europa League | 2–1 | O2.5 |
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