Chapecoense arrive at this Serie A Round 19 fixture battered and exposed - one win in their last five across all competitions, conceding nine goals in that run. Flamengo, by contrast, have won four of their last five, scoring 13 goals and keeping two clean sheets, with the only blemish a draw against River Plate.
The numbers paint a brutal picture. Chapecoense have kept zero clean sheets in five outings and scored in only 2 of those 5. Flamengo have scored in all 5 of theirs. The model puts Flamengo's win probability at 68%, and the away win price of 1.44-1.48 reflects a dominant side against a side in freefall.
Flamengo Away win at 1.44 is the play. Yes, the price is short, but the class gap here is undeniable and the model backs it hard. For those wanting more meat on the bone, Over 2.5 at 1.83-1.85 is the sensible escalation.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Predictions are editorial opinions based on the data available at publication - never a guarantee. Odds move and availability varies by region. 18+, please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org · Joueurs Info Service