This second leg arrives goalless from the first meeting eight days ago, and the head-to-head record across three matches shows CSKA Sofia have yet to score against Qarabag in competitive or friendly action. Qarabag eliminated Vestri 6-0 on aggregate without conceding, and CSKA drew 0-0 with Slavia Sofia in the league before beating Botev 3-2. Both sides know a clean sheet keeps qualification alive.
Across the last five matches, CSKA have scored in 3 of 5 and Qarabag have conceded in just 2 of 5. The h2h across 3 games produced 0 goals for CSKA and only 2 against, with zero BTTS and zero matches over 2.5. Under 2.5 is priced at 1.70, which reflects a genuine probability edge given the structural context.
With qualification the only currency here, neither side will gamble. Under 2.5 goals at 1.70 is the call. The price is short but the case is solid across two independent pillars: a blanket h2h defensive record and a second-leg qualification dynamic that rewards patience over ambition.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 23.07.26 | UEFA Europa League | 0–0 | U2.5 |
| 04.07.23 | Club Friendlies | 0–1 | U2.5 |
| 04.07.23 | Club Friendlies | 1–0 | U2.5 |
Predictions are editorial opinions based on the data available at publication - never a guarantee. Odds move and availability varies by region. 18+, please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org · Joueurs Info Service