FK Liepaja enter this Conference League qualifier having just eliminated Decic (3-1 on aggregate), but their domestic form is mixed: 3 wins and 2 losses in their last 5, conceding in 3 of those. Austria Vienna's recent run is almost entirely friendlies, though they scored 10 goals across 5 games and conceded in 4 of them. No head-to-head data exists between these sides. The class gap between an Austrian Bundesliga club and a Latvian top-flight side is the primary driver here.
The model lands on Under 3.5 goals (1.36-1.38) as the structural anchor. Liepaja scored in 4 of 5 recent games but also kept only 2 clean sheets. Vienna conceded in 4 of 5. Both sides show over 2.5 in 3 of 5 outings, pointing to a moderately open game. The away win price sits at 1.35-1.38 across books, with DNB (Draw No Bet) for Vienna implied around 1.16.
Verdict: Austria Vienna away win at 1.35. The price is short but the gap in quality and competition level justifies it. DNB Vienna at 1.16 is the safer cover if you want insurance.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
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