Two sides arrive in pristine condition: France and Spain are both unbeaten across five World Cup matches, each conceding just once. France are missing Tchouameni in midfield, which matters against Spain's ball-retention game. In the two most recent meetings Spain won both - a 5-4 Nations League thriller and a 2-1 Euro quarter-final - so the head-to-head edge is clearly with the visitors.
The numbers are symmetrical but the h2h breaks the tie. France kept 4 clean sheets in 5; Spain also kept 4. Both sides scored in every game. Both went over 2.5 goals in 3 of 5. However, in 2 head-to-head meetings Spain scored 7 goals, France only 5, and BTTS landed both times - a pattern that points to goals and Spanish quality in front of net.
Spain Draw No Bet at 2.25 (bet365) is the play. You remove the draw risk from a match where both defences are elite, and back the side that has beaten France twice recently. Confidence is measured: this is a semi-final and margins are tight.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 05.06.25 | UEFA Nations League | 5–4 | O2.5 |
| 09.07.24 | UEFA European Championship | 2–1 | O2.5 |
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