Eliteserien Round 13 brings a Norwegian derby with contrasting momentum. Fredrikstad arrive off a heavy 3-1 friendly defeat to Valerenga and carry four absentees - Kvile, both Owusus and Nunez - weakening their attacking options. Lillestrom lost a friendly to Degerfors but beat Sarpsborg 08 3-1 in their most recent outing; their last competitive result was a 2-0 defeat at HamKam, so neither side enters in sparkling league form.
The H2H in Eliteserien tilts Lillestrom's way away from home: they won 3-0 at Fredrikstad in May 2024, and Fredrikstad won the reverse fixture that October. The model assigns Lillestrom a 44% win probability against Fredrikstad's 30%, with draw at 26%. Odds of 2.40-2.45 on the away win imply roughly 41%, sitting just below the model's estimate - a slim but genuine edge. Lillestrom also carry three injuries but their absences look less disruptive.
Verdict: Lillestrom away at 2.40 (bet365/WilliamHill) offers marginal value. The AH line (ah0) at 1.72 for Lillestrom is the cleaner play if you want the handicap cushion. Main tip: Lillestrom DNB at 2.08 (bet365 AH0), cutting out the draw risk.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 31.01.26 | Club Friendlies | 2–2 | O2.5 |
| 22.03.25 | Club Friendlies | 1–0 | U2.5 |
| 20.10.24 | Eliteserien | 2–1 | O2.5 |
| 20.05.24 | Eliteserien | 0–3 | O2.5 |
| 27.01.24 | Club Friendlies | 2–1 | O2.5 |
Predictions are editorial opinions based on the data available at publication - never a guarantee. Odds move and availability varies by region. 18+, please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org · Joueurs Info Service