Gremio head into this one without a clean sheet in their last five matches, shipping nine goals across that run while losing three times. Fluminense, by contrast, arrive unbeaten in five, with three wins and two draws, conceding just four goals in that stretch. The h2h tells the same story: Gremio have lost both meetings this season, conceding twice each time.
The model gives Fluminense a 38% win probability against a 35% chance for the hosts, yet the market treats them almost identically at 2.60-2.62. With Gremio leaking at both ends and Fluminense keeping a tighter ship, the visitor's price holds genuine appeal. Both sides have scored in every h2h fixture, and BTTS landed in all five of Gremio's recent games.
Fluminense DNB at 1.90 is the play. You get the win, and if it somehow ends level, your stake comes back. Given Gremio's defensive mess and Flu's unbeaten run, this is a calculated swing worth taking.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 28.01.26 | Serie A | 2–1 | O2.5 |
| 03.12.25 | Serie A | 1–2 | O2.5 |
| 03.08.25 | Serie A | 1–0 | U2.5 |
| 02.11.24 | Serie A | 2–2 | O2.5 |
| 14.08.24 | CONMEBOL Libertadores | 2–1 | O2.5 |
Predictions are editorial opinions based on the data available at publication - never a guarantee. Odds move and availability varies by region. 18+, please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org · Joueurs Info Service