Hammarby arrive in mixed league form - two wins and three defeats across their last five competitive outings - yet their recent away win at Elfsborg shows they can still perform when it matters. Kalmar, meanwhile, look sharp: four wins from five in their last five games, conceding just four goals in that stretch and keeping three clean sheets. The visitors are travelling in genuine confidence.
The head-to-head record is the decisive number here. From Hammarby's perspective across the last five meetings, they have won four, drawn one and lost none, scoring 12 and conceding only four. Four of those five games also cleared 2.5 goals. The model gives Hammarby a 66% win probability and 85% Draw No Bet probability. At 1.18 (bet365) for Hammarby DNB, the margin is thin but the historical edge is real.
Hammarby DNB at 1.18 is the main play - it covers you if Kalmar's solid recent run produces a surprise draw. For the alt, BTTS YES at 1.67 has strong H2H backing with four of five previous meetings seeing both sides score.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 03.03.25 | Svenska Cupen | 2–1 | O2.5 |
| 04.08.24 | Allsvenskan | 1–4 | O2.5 |
| 31.03.24 | Allsvenskan | 3–1 | O2.5 |
| 20.08.23 | Allsvenskan | 0–0 | U2.5 |
| 16.07.23 | Allsvenskan | 3–1 | O2.5 |
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