Hearts host Sturm Graz in the second leg trailing 0-4 from the first meeting. The Scottish side has gone W2 D1 L2 across its last five outings, scoring in only 3 of 5 and conceding in 4 of 5. Sturm arrives having won all five recent matches, scoring 17 goals and conceding just 2, keeping 3 clean sheets in that run.
The numbers are stark. Sturm's 17 goals scored versus 2 conceded in five games dwarfs Hearts' 5 scored versus 8 conceded. The over 2.5 line sits at 1.57, reflecting both sides' tendency to produce goals: Hearts hit that mark in 4 of 5 and Sturm in 4 of 5 as well. With a 4-0 aggregate cushion, Sturm plays without pressure while Hearts must attack.
The model points to over 2.5 goals at 1.57 as the main play. Sturm's defensive solidity and Hearts' need to chase the tie create space for a high-scoring night. Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 1.57.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 21.07.26 | UEFA Champions League | 4–0 | O2.5 |
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