Mirassol host a Grêmio side that has only just returned from friendlies and arrives carrying four injury absences. The home crowd at Round 19 of the Brazilian Serie A watches a team that, despite mixed recent form, has a psychological stranglehold on this fixture.
The head-to-head tells the real story: Mirassol have won all 3 previous meetings, scoring 8 and conceding just 3. Grêmio's last 5 games produced goals in every single match - 9 scored, 10 conceded - but Mirassol kept a clean sheet in their last H2H encounter. The model gives Mirassol 40% to win outright and 70% to avoid defeat, while Grêmio DNB sits at 2.75.
I'm backing Mirassol DNB at 1.40-1.42. The H2H record is commanding, Grêmio's defensive fragility is real, and four absentees hurt the visitors. Tight price, yes - but the evidence is hard to argue with.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 13.09.25 | Serie A | 0–1 | U2.5 |
| 17.04.25 | Serie A | 4–1 | O2.5 |
| 02.03.22 | Copa do Brasil | 3–2 | O2.5 |
Predictions are editorial opinions based on the data available at publication - never a guarantee. Odds move and availability varies by region. 18+, please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org · Joueurs Info Service