Necaxa opened their Liga MX campaign with a home win over Atlante, but Monterrey rolled into the new season just as sharp, beating Santos Laguna 3-2 on matchday one. Both sides arrive in decent nick, yet the history between them tells a brutal story. Necaxa have lost all five of their last meetings with Monterrey, keeping zero clean sheets and scoring just twice across those five games. Monterrey conceded in every one of their last five matches in all competitions, so goals feel inevitable, but the direction of travel is clear. The model gives Monterrey a 38 percent chance of winning outright, fractionally ahead of the hosts at 37 percent, and the away DNB at 1.62 rewards that edge without the draw risk. Five straight defeats in this fixture, a Necaxa attack that scored in just 1 of those 5 h2h games, and a Monterrey side that opened the season with a win: back Rayados on the Draw No Bet at 1.62.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 14.01.26 | Liga MX | 0–2 | U2.5 |
| 24.08.25 | Liga MX | 3–0 | O2.5 |
| 02.02.25 | Liga MX | 1–0 | U2.5 |
| 18.07.24 | Liga MX | 0–1 | U2.5 |
| 29.04.24 | Liga MX | 2–5 | O2.5 |
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