Orgryte arrive at round 13 without a win in their last five competitive outings, shipping 14 goals across those games while keeping zero clean sheets. Djurgarden, meanwhile, scored in all five of their recent matches and won twice away from home, including a 4-2 win at Hacken. The gap in trajectory is stark.
Orgryte conceded in all 5 of their last 5 - their defensive record is the worst in this sample. Djurgarden's 12 goals scored in 5 games underlines consistent attacking output. The model puts Djurgarden's win probability at 80%, and the market agrees at 1.40-1.42. DNB at 1.16 removes draw risk cleanly.
Draw No Bet Djurgarden at 1.16 is the play. Orgryte's inability to keep a clean sheet or collect a win makes this the most defensible position. Alt: Over 2.5 goals at 1.48 - both sides have combined for goals freely and neither has a functioning defence.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
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