Vitoria arrive at this Round 21 fixture battered and thin. Six players are listed injured, and their last two Serie A outings brought a draw at Botafogo and a defeat at Remo - zero goals scored in both. Palmeiras, meanwhile, have won four of their last five across all competitions, putting 12 goals past opponents in those five matches.
The numbers back the visitors hard. Palmeiras scored in all 5 of their last 5 matches, while Vitoria scored in only 3 of their last 5. The model puts Palmeiras at 55% to win outright and 81% to win or draw. The away DNB price at 1.42 reflects that, but the 1X2 away price at 1.95-1.96 carries real value given the injury chaos at home.
Vitoria's squad is stretched, their recent form is flat, and Palmeiras are in full attacking flow. Away win at 1.95 is the call - a price that beats the model's implied fair value.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 05.02.26 | Serie A | 5–1 | O2.5 |
| 19.11.25 | Serie A | 0–0 | U2.5 |
| 04.08.25 | Serie A | 2–2 | O2.5 |
| 28.07.24 | Serie A | 0–2 | U2.5 |
| 14.04.24 | Serie A | 0–1 | U2.5 |
Predictions are editorial opinions based on the data available at publication - never a guarantee. Odds move and availability varies by region. 18+, please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org · Joueurs Info Service