Pronóstico Mjallby vs AIK, Allsvenskan - 11 jul 2026

Mjällby head into Round 12 as modest home favourites against an AIK side carrying significant injury concerns. The hosts drew 4-4 at Sirius last time out in Allsvenskan - a chaotic scoreline that followed draws at Göteborg and Elfsborg in May. AIK, meanwhile, bounced back to beat Göteborg away on 5 July after a bruising 3-0 home defeat to Sirius in late May. Four AIK players are listed injured (Cisse, Nissen, Helm, Yohanna), against just two for Mjällby (Miettinen, Kjær).

The H2H numbers favour Mjällby at home: they won 2-0 here in July 2025, and the only previous home loss was a 1-3 Swedish Cup defeat. In the last four Allsvenskan meetings, each team has won once on their own patch. The model gives Mjällby a 54% win probability; the DNB home price at bet365 sits around 1.45 (AH 0), offering clean exposure to that edge without the draw eating your stake.

Mjällby's home record in this fixture and AIK's injury list tip the balance. DNB Mjällby at ~1.45 is the play. Alt: BTTS YES at 1.70 - recent games on both sides have been high-scoring, and five of the last six matches involving either team produced goals at both ends.

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